domenica 27 novembre 2011

Monti’s budget plans shrouded in fog

Mario Monti
Mario Monti has undergone a baptism of fire in his first 10 days as Italy’s new prime minister – the Milan stock market has slumped while bond yields have climbed relentlessly to levels that, if sustained, would demand an international bailout the eurozone cannot afford.
And yet topping the agenda of a highly anticipated cabinet meeting on Friday was discussion of draft laws on bilateral agreements with Mauritius, San Marino and the Cook Islands, and a bill to stop harmful anti-fouling systems on ships whose ill effects include penis growth on female whelks.
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Having placed their faith in the former economics professor and his unelected team of technocrats as antidote to years of scandals and paralysis under Silvio Berlusconi, Italians are getting a little nervous.
With everyone waiting to know where the budget knife will fall, there is still no clarity on Mr Monti’s planned emergency measures. An official statement saying cabinet discussions “touched briefly on the Italian situation” did little to inspire confidence.
Nor did the cabinet discuss the urgent appointments of deputy ministers and top officials, which have apparently been stalled by the main political parties in their refusal to lend direct support to Mr Monti’s caretaker government.
“He and his ministers have either said nothing at all or poured out lots of words that said nothing,” said James Walston, political scientist at the American University of Rome. “They are going to have to do a lot of communicating if they are going to get anywhere.”
Within this fog of uncertainty, the cabinet injected a modicum of urgency. “Ministers launched a discussion to identify the operative course to take to define the package of measures to adopt in the shortest time possible,” the government intoned, quoting Mr Monti as saying his reforms would be “equitable and incisive”.
According to leaks from politicians, the urgent task is to plug an estimated hole of €15bn to €20bn ($20bn-$27bn) in next year’s budget to keep Italy on track to eliminate its deficit by 2013, as demanded by the EU.
Measures that parliament will be asked to approve before Christmas could include imposing a property tax abolished by Mr Berlusconi, plus a limited wealth tax on top earners, and an increase in excise duties and value added tax. Local governments could also face further cuts in their budgets.
Despite the slow start, Mr Monti’s government could nonetheless last longer than expected, with general elections not due until early 2013.
“No one dares to take the responsibility of bringing him down,” said Mr Walston, noting how Germany’s Angela Merkel and Nicolas Sarkozy of France embraced Mr Monti and lifted Italy back onto the international stage in Strasbourg on Thursday.
Mr Berlusconi’s earlier threats that he could “pull the plug” on the government are looking hollow, with dissident MPs in his centre-right People of Liberty party set to disobey any such order. Caught by photographers this week, the ex-prime minister looked a haunted man as he took a coffee in Milan following a court appearance at one of his three trials.
“No one wants elections,” a leading politician told the Financial Times. “Voters would punish us,” he said, pointing to opinion polls showing 60 per cent of Italians backed Mr Monti.
However, a closer look suggests that confidence might be short-lived. Only 18 per cent of Italians support an across-the-board property tax, while nearly half oppose suggested changes in labour laws making it easier for companies to hire and fire.
Mr Berlusconi’s media empire is already portraying Mr Monti – a former adviser to Goldman Sachs, the investment bank – as a lackey of big business and the Germans. One daily owned by the Berlusconi family demanded to know how Mr Monti could reveal his plans to Ms Merkel, who called them “impressive”, before informing parliament.
And yet Mr Monti’s careful deliberations are giving rise to anxiety in Brussels, where EU officials note his talk of taking “the economic cycle” into account in implementing austerity and tailoring measures according to growth.
Italian economists suggest that Mr Monti is not so wedded to the “blood and tears shock therapy” pushed by Brussels and Frankfurt, and that surprises could be in store.

FONTE: ft.com

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